Norway has virtually locked up a coveted spot in the 2026 FIFA World Cup after defeating Estonia 4-1 in the ninth round of European qualifiers. Although Italy later won their match against Moldova 2-0, Norway’s commanding position remains almost unassailable.

Norway currently maintains a three-point lead over Italy in the group standings, with the two sides set to face each other in the final decisive match. While an Italian victory would see the teams finish level on points, the reality is that a massive goal difference gap of 17 goals separates them.

This means that for Italy to finish above Norway and snatch the direct qualification spot, they would need to defeat Norway in the final round by a margin of at least 9-0—a result deemed mathematically possible but practically impossible.

For Norway, this impending qualification is historic. The team last appeared in a major tournament at Euro 2000, and their last World Cup appearance was in France 1998. Led by a talented new generation of players, including star forward Erling Haaland, Norway is finally closing in on a long-awaited return to the global stage.